Between 2022 and 2025 the United States transgender population grew 80% (Williams Institute 2025). In that same time period, state and federal anti-trans bills considered by the United States government increased 668%. This growth spike peaked in 2023 when proposed bills grew over 3.5 fold from the year before (Trans Legislation Tracker 2026). 

The growth of anti-trans legislation over the last four years is unprecedented. Yet, there has been little public opposition to the bills. Conservative lawmakers have shifted anti-trans bills from direct social exclusion to policies that claim to “protect” society. This reframing has minimized public backlash and allowed the legislation to be proposed and enforced at a rapidly increasing rate. 

The First Failure: Bathroom Bills

Anti-trans bills originated in 2016 with the passing of multiple state-level bathroom bills. The first bill was passed in North Carolina. Subsequent bills followed in Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma (Hohne 2022). These bills prohibited people from using public bathrooms that do not align with their assigned sex at birth. 

However, HB2, North Carolina’s bathroom bill, was immediately rejected by the public. Retaliation was initiated by the NCAA and NBA, which relocated championship and all-star events out of North Carolina, publicly announcing these decisions as a response to HB2. Celebrities such as Nick Jonas and Bruce Springsteen canceled their shows in North Carolina for the same reasons. This was followed by the Human Rights Campaign and 68 companies filing a court brief against the state, demanding a recedence of HB2. The bill was repealed in March of 2017, exactly a year after it was passed (Hohne 2022).

From Prohibition to Protection

Following the HB2 response, conservative lawmakers pivoted their approach to advance anti-trans bills. The first wave of bathroom bills failed because they overtly excluded trans people from public spaces. Instead, the second wave of trans bills emphasized “protecting” cisgender environments, such as sports, school, and healthcare. These bills argue to be in favor of the average American family, rather than against trans people. Although many of these bills avoid explicitly expressing transphobia and discrimination (Rummler and Sosin 2021), the bills still oppress and take rights from the trans community. 

Many of these newer bills were not written by government legislators, but rather legal organizations. These organizations include the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), the Liberty Counsel, the Family Research Council (FRC), and the American Principles Project (APP) (Contreras 2023). These groups published templates that state legislators and conservative officials can use with ease. These templates led to the exponential increase of bills starting in 2023. 

Almost 12% of the proposed anti-trans bills in 2023 were related to sports (Trans Legislation Tracker 2026). Many of these bills arose in response to transgender female Lia Thomas, winner of the NCAA D1 swimming title the year before (Office of Transgender Initiatives 2025). These bills were framed not to prevent trans-youth from participating in local sports, but rather to protect the cisgender women and girls that are playing them. 

Over half of the proposed bills in 2023 targeted trans people, mainly youth, in education and healthcare. By preventing transgender awareness and gender education in school, these bills claim to give the agency to parents and protect young children. This, however, not only fails to acknowledge the challenges and risks trans youth face at school (Meadow 2018), but also exacerbates a negative stigma as transgender youth are thereby treated as deviations from “normal” and made into something forbidden in the classroom. 

Many proposed healthcare bills argue that minors are not capable of making a gender-altering decision. Rather than protecting the public, they are written to protect transgender youth from committing to their gender identity. While the lawmakers believe their control over healthcare decisions is protective, it is actually the opposite, for two main reasons. First, just as in schools, these healthcare bills frame gender-affirming care as deviant from societal standards. Second, delaying this care until adulthood can actually have significant negative effects on trans-youth. Although gender affirming care may be irreversible, so is puberty. Advancement through puberty makes gender affirming care more dangerous and also induced anxiety and stress about being able to find care that supports their experienced identity.

Transgender youth are already a marginalized and at-risk population across the country. Although youth are the fastest growing transgender population, they also experience heightened stress and exclusion (Delozier, Kamody, and Rodgers 2020). Limited access to legal healthcare, negative stigma and little education in their schools, and exclusion from athletic participation all intensify these negative outcomes. This has lead to preventable deaths and an increased suicide rate among trans kids (Barbee, Deal, and Gonzalez 2022).

Requirement to Repeat the Past

In 2026 over 771 anti-trans bills have been considered or are currently under consideration. This is on pace for being much higher than any previous year. Four months into 2026, 119 of these bills are proposed at the national level, a dramatic increase from 2022, when no anti-trans bills were passed at the federal level. Federal bills increased as Congress shifted right in 2023, and grew additionally after the transition to the Trump administration (Trans Legislation Tracker 2026). 

It is essential that the American public respond to these discriminatory bills. Conservative lawmakers are able to advance and propose so many bills today because they are not being met with the public resistance faced in 2017 . Yet, difficult times like now are when problems are most visible and change is not only possible, but required. Public pressure can be a very effective technique, as evident in 2016. Repeating that approach is crucial for the health and safety of the transgender community today.

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